The long emergency is what follows after oil production peaks some time soon.  “Don’t worry about Global Warming; Peak Oil means that Carbon Dioxide emissions must drop.”  Or perhaps not.  As Kunstler argues, this century is going to be just one d*** thing after another.  So why another book to depress you?  Because there is still time for strong faith and cool heads to prevent the worst, if we act together with understanding.  Anyway, if everything does fall apart it will be faith communities (as usual) that have the strength and compassion to pick up the pieces.

 

Kunstler is American, middle-aged and (page 304) ‘[has] lived more than half a century through the greatest fiesta of luxury, comfort and leisure that the world has ever known.’  There are some illustrations here for sermons on Mammon and whirlwinds. 

 

Kunstler has written on environmental and economic issues for many years.  His expressed hope for this book (page 2) is ‘that the public will wake up from its sleep-walk.’  Indeed.  Don’t Americans use five times their fair share of the Globe’s resources?  We only use just over three times.

 

On the optimism-scale Kunstler lies somewhere between: ‘it’s bad, but technology will save us’ and ‘it’s terminal and tragic.’  He does not claim a Faith but he has a sense of the mystery of human existence and an implicit faith that God is not mocked.  Or as he puts it more positively (page 307): ‘Surely by [the time a sadder, wiser and simpler humanity finds stability again] God will have blessed himself back into existence.

 

In  chapter 5: ‘Nature bites back’, Kunstler gives a succinct account of Climate Change and other imminent environmental crises.  The perspective is slightly different from that in books on Global Warming, which sharpens the focus.  The effects of Peak Oil and Climate Change will reinforce each other (quite apart from the increased emissions expected from a switch back to coal).  He predicts how Peak Oil will make concerted international action and the development of appropriate technology more difficult.

 

This is a readable, almost racy, book.  If Kunstler exaggerates any of the scenarios, the situation is still dire.  Importantly, he reminds us that not only do we use vast quantities of fossil fuels to power our technological civilisation – we also use vast quantities to construct the technology.  This will be true also for low-carbon technology.  There could be a problem.

 

Is Kunstler a modern Jeremiah?  Possibly.  And Jeremiah was proved right.  There will be no ‘peace’ in our time, nor for many generations to come.  Will there ever be a return from ‘exile’?  Yes, and those planning vaults to keep safe seeds and precious knowledge and wisdom are perhaps like Jeremiah buying the field.  Whether or not this book is correct in every detail, there is a long, hard road ahead (especially for the poor).  Unless . . . will we heed today’s prophets at this 11^th hour?

Charles Jolly