Download from hdr.undp.org (click The Report and click English Summary).

 

This report is an excellent and accessible summary of the actual and potential effects of global warming and climate change, especially in poor communities - and of how the world is responding.  There is some disturbing reading and the report does not pull its punches about the responsibilities of developed nations. 

 

Unfortunately, but not unusually, the report glosses over the large uncertainties in climate change prediction, although this helps it maintain an optimistic 'can do' tone.  It does not, however, downplay the huge challenges ahead.  The balanced world-view is particularly helpful for campaigners and speakers and anyone who wants to well-informed.

 

The comparative tables are easy to read and enlightening.  Norway has a long-term (2050) zero carbon target and California a target of 80% cuts.  The United Arab Emirates is the worst offender, emitting 34.1 tonnes CO2 per capita.  Since the data are mainly for 2004, the USA still holds its place as top emitter.  At only 31 pages this summary report is an example of conciseness and lucidity.  If you have only time to read one report, read this one!

 

There is a list of very sound recommendations, such as a stabilisation target of 450 ppmV CO2e and corresponding cuts by developed countries of 80%+ by 2050 (and stringent targets for major developing countries, e.g. China).  This may be the best that we can expect for binding targets in a post-2012 Kyoto agreement.  But it also needs pointing out that they only give around a 50% chance of keeping within a 2^oC rise above pre-industrial levels (see the exemplary graph on page 17) and that this is dependent on forests and oceans remaining strong CO2 absorbers.

 

The report concludes sombrely: 'There is no such thing as a last chance in human affairs, but the post-2012 Kyoto framework comes close.'  Too close for comfort.

Charles Jolly